July 24, 2020  |  Macro

[Report] The warning signs in China’s Q2 GDP data

We remain skeptical of China’s headline GDP print for Q2, but even taking the sector-specific GDP data at face value shows the better than expected result has fragile foundations. Drilling into the official data shows that the main drivers of growth in Q2 were industrial inventory build and construction catch-up, as halted building projects were resumed. As these one-off boosts to growth fade, policymakers will struggle to maintain Q2 run rates without injecting new stimulus into the economy.

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