[Report] 2021: A tricky path to growth

In today’s note, we weigh up the tailwinds and headwinds facing the Chinese economy next year. The biggest risk to growth in our view is the withdrawal of stimulus. Policymakers are already well set on the path to monetary policy normalization, with financing costs rising and credit growth peaking – although there are certainly limits as to the pace and extent of tightening. Officials are also signaling a more restrained approach to fiscal stimulus next year.