[Report] Fiscal firefighting will likely undermine H2 stimulus

China’s infrastructure stimulus is taking shape. We now estimate that additional funding for infrastructure investment this year could be as high as RMB 4.55 trillion if local governments are allowed to use next year’s special-purpose bond quota to issue debt in 2022. We estimate locked-in funding for the remainder of this year at RMB 2.85-3.05 trillion.